Market Intelligence [Jan.2026]
Logistics Market Intelligence 1st Quarter Report

Registration dateJAN 19, 2026

Economy Trends

Economy Market Trends
Global economic growth has decelerated due to persistent policy risks stemming from tariff impositions under a second Trump administration. The global growth rate for 2025 is projected at 3.2%, a 0.1 percentage point decline from the previous year.

U.S. Market Trends
The U.S. PMI stayed in contraction for the tenth straight month in December 2025 amid growth slowdown caused by tariff-related policy uncertainty and increased consumption volatility. As inflation eased, the U.S. cut rates three times from September to limit slowdown risks.

China Market Trends
China's PMI returned to expansion in December on stimulus, while the U.S. stayed in contraction for a tenth after nine months, underpinned by government stimulus. Nevertheless, ongoing property-sector risks and slowing external demand are likely to constrain the recovery of domestic demand and exports despite policy easing.

Economy Outlook

Global Economy Outlook
Global economic growth in 2026 is expected to enter a phase of gradual slowdown, as major institutions have revised their forecasts down to around 3% in response to the full impact of tariffs. Among major economies, China is projected to maintain relatively stronger growth, while the U.S. and Europe are expected to experience a mild deceleration, and Korea is anticipated to see a rebound.

U.S. Economy Outlook
The U.S. economy is expected to be driven by AI-related investment, while policy uncertainty is likely to remain elevated. Uncertainties surrounding shifts in monetary policy and the midterm elections are expected to persist.

China Economy Outlook
China’s structural slowdown is unlikely to be resolved in the near term, and export volatility stemming from changes in the global trade environment is expected to continue.

Ocean Trends

Ocean Demand Trends
In 4Q 2025, global demand recovered despite tariff pressures, trade uncertainty, and economic/logistics volatility. Despite a sharp drop in U.S. imports, exports from Asia to Europe/emerging markets drove global demand growth in 2025.

Ocean Supply Trends
In 4Q 2025, the global container fleet surpassed 32 m TEU on large newbuild deliveries & maximized capacity availability. Oversupply concerns keep weighing despite ongoing new orders lifting the orderbook to around 33% of the fleet.

Ocean Market Trends
In 4Q 2025, Comprehensive Index declined 3% QoQ as weaker demand and excess supply pressured rates across major lanes. By lane, N.America and Europe weakened, while emerging markets such as the ME and Southeast Asia grew.

Ocean Outlook

Ocean Demand Outlook
Global demand in 2026 is forecast to slow to 1.8–3.5% YoY, with Red Sea Return & tariff rulings as key variables.

Ocean Supply Outlook
Oversupply is expected to persist in 2026, making capacity management increasingly critical to offset supply pressure.

Ocean Market Outlook
As pre-holiday shipments ahead of China's Lunar New Year begin, rates are expected to rebound through Jan. Average freight rates in 1Q are expected to remain stable across all lanes, with limited upside potential.

Air Trends

Air Demand Trends
In 4Q 2025, air cargo demand rose 5.9% YoY, while growth continued to slow compared with last year. Monthly volumes up ahead of peak season, lifting short-term demand by 1.5% vs. the 3Q average.

Air Supply Trends
In 4Q 2025, supply rose by an avg. of 6.4% YoY, supported by passenger market recovery and year-end shopping demand. November supply dipped by 1.5% MoM after the passenger peak, but remained up by 6.5% YoY.

Air Market Trends
In 4Q 2025, air freight rate index fell by 2.2% YoY, with smaller increases even during the peak season. Front-loading in 1H driven by high tariffs and easing trade tensions pushed average rates into a stabilization phase.

Air Outlook

Air Demand Outlook
IATA forecasts 2026 demand to grow by 2.6% YoY, Global trade volume growth expected at 0.5% YoY. Demand growth remains solid, but market trend will be driven more by supply growth than demand changes.

Air Supply Outlook
2026 supply growth is expected at 3–4% YoY, outpacing demand growth and reinforcing a supply-led market. Aircraft deliveries recover gradually, but remain constrained by backlog and structural bottlenecks.

Air Market Outlook
VN–US rates in 1Q to stabilize after the peak season, with upside potential from electronics and AI demand. CN–US rates in 1Q remain relatively high YoY, but are expected to trend gradually downward.