Market Intelligence [Oct. 2025]
Logistics Market Intelligence Quarterly Report

Registration dateOCT 15, 2025

World Growth Outlook

Globally, the IMF projects grwoth of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2025. U.S uncertainty persists over court ruling and APEC outcomes.
Downside risk remain as U.S.-China tensions may trigger shocks.

Economic outlook by region

: Chip-led export momentum and improving sentiment are supporting consumption and near-term growth. Tighter U.S. product-specific tariffs (autos, steel, etc.) could increasingly temper export volumes & margins.

: Export market diversification and domestic stimulus are partially offsetting tariff headwinds. Risks of renewed tensions remain as waiver deadlines approach and negotiations show uneven progress.

: Active tariff negotiations with the U.S. are gradually easing uncertainty for exporters. A USD 48bn infrastructure program is set to attract more FDI and reinforce medium-term growth.

: Tariff and trade frictions point to weak near-term growth with uneven country performance. Expanded defense and infrastructure spending should aid a gradual, later-stage recovery.

: Infrastructure and manufacturing outlays support activity, but tariffs are adding to inflation pressure. Softening consumer sentiment and PMI, alongside a tick-up in unemployment, are heightening stagflation risk.

Container Freight Rate : SCFI

: Weak pre-holiday demand kept Oct rates low, with few upward drivers from China through year-end.
Q4 ocean rates should remain weak overall, with brief regional swings from external factors.

(Source : Shanghai Shipping Exchange )

Demand & Supply Trend

: This year’s container market shows a 3.6% oversupply, keeping rates weak.
Next year’s gap may narrow to 1.8%, indicating gradual stabilization but continued oversupply.

Air Freight Rate: TAC Index

: Q3 global air freight rate index down 4.6% YoY; early shipments in H1 limit peak-season impact.
U.S.-centered air cargo market shifting toward Europe and intra-Asia amid trade policy changes.