Market Intelligence [2H 2025]
Logistics Market Intelligence
2nd Half Report

Registration dateDEC 11, 2025

Ocean Market

Demand Trend
U.S.–China tensions drove the market, with Transpacific demand slowing from tariffs and excess inventory. Asia–Europe/developing-market exports and Intra-Asia demand stayed firm, supporting global volumes.

Supply Trend
Carriers are broadly managing capacity across trades to protect profitability amid rapid policy shifts. A Suez return remains limited, with residual risks and weak conditions keeping carriers on the Cape of Good Hope.

Market Trend
This year’s market weakened as volatility rose from fleet growth, macro uncertainty, and geopolitical risks. Toward year-end, added fleet capacity and seasonal demand softness further strains the balance.

Air Market

Demand Trend
In 2H, demand rose 4.7% YoY, with tariff-related front-loading emerging as a key driver. As new tariffs shift U.S. sourcing from China to Southeast Asia, Asian exports are accelerating.

Supply Trend
In 2H, flexible capacity management pushed air-cargo supply up 5.2% YoY, creating a supply-led market. Growth in freighter (+8.6% YoY) and express capacity (+4.5% YoY) drove the overall expansion.

Market Trend
Early shipping and peak demand lifted spot rates, but softer YoY peak momentum kept rates stable. Tariff-driven demand softness and delayed capacity turned both YoY demand and supply downward.

Houthis End Maritime Attacks — Suez Return Near?

Since the Houthis announced a halt to attacks in Nov., interest in a potential Red Sea return has grown. Carriers are split between an early return to gain advantage and waiting until safety conditions are met.

Cape diversions over the past two years have inflated demand and pushed rates up. A full Suez return could overwhelm European ports, causing major congestion and sharp rate spikes.

Record aging fleet — mass scrapping ahead?

Fleet aging has approached record levels over the past two years as Red Sea disruptions tightened capa. A large pool of older, mainly small & mid-sized vessels could face mass scrapping next year if market weakens.

Chinese Air Market Review and Outlook

Despite U.S. tariff pressure, demand remains strong on China's e-commerce and high-tech exports. Pax capacity is recovering toward Pre-'19 levels, while annual FRT capacity growth continues to be strong.

Manufacturing shifts to SEA/India, with Europe offsetting weaker U.S.-bound e-commerce demand. China's Air cargo capacity is set to keep growing in 2026, but U.S. pressure may slow the pace.

Ocean Market

Demand Outlook
Global demand to soften, with weak U.S. imports and ongoing China export diversification. Red Sea normalization would remove the TEU-miles boost, deepening the supply–demand imbalance.

Supply Outlook
Oversupply will persist next year due to record new deliveries, keeping strong downward pressure on rates. At the same time, carriers are expected to use supply-control measures more flexibly to protect profitability.

Market Outlook
Structural oversupply signals 1H weakness, with carriers intensifying competition for profit and volume. A Suez return is the key variable, likely triggering brief disruption followed by a sharper downturn.

Air Market

Demand Outlook
WTO cut its '26 trade outlook from 2.5% to 0.5%, signaling a contraction. Lower ocean rates and diversified sourcing will weaken air-cargo demand.

Supply Outlook
Due to new high U.S. tariffs, Boeing's new orders rose sharply after tariff talks began in May. Meanwhile, production issues and delivery delays are expected to accelerate delivery deferrals.

Market Outlook
1H 2026: Reliance on China eases as emerging Asian hubs support air rate gains. Global slowdown and front-loaded inventories to weaken 1H 2026 demand, pressuring air rates.

Interested in our logistics report?

Get a sample download.

Become a member of Cello Square to
receive more detailed logistics reports!

List

Market Intelligence [2H 2025]Logistics Market Intelligence2nd Half Report

Ocean Market

Air Market

Houthis End Maritime Attacks — Suez Return Near?

Record aging fleet — mass scrapping ahead?

Chinese Air Market Review and Outlook

Ocean Market

Air Market

Latest Market Updates

Market Intelligence [2H 2025]
Logistics Market Intelligence
2nd Half Report