Market Intelligence [H1 2025]
Logistics Market Intelligence
1st Half Report

Registration dateJUL 08, 2025

Economy Market Issue

The 2025 economic market will be significantly affected by the Trump administration's tariff policies. Trump turned to the Trade Expansion Act amid IEEPA tariff doubts. U.S. tariff revenue set to hit record high despite Trump-era trade tensions. Also, U.S. slows for 5th month; other major economies rebound (OECD). Despite US-CN Trade Agreement(May), the US effective tariff rate hit a record 15.8% since the 1930s. Tariff hikes likely increase consumer costs, reduce purchasing power, and slow demand.

Ocean Market Issue

The U.S. is expanding its scrutiny of China to shipping and shipbuilding, with port fees set to begin in October. Despite efforts to avoid the fees, ocean freight rates are likely to rise.

Air Market Issue

US De Minimis, key driver of China e-commerce growth, ended in May 2025, halting market expansion. De Minimis abolition hits e-commerce (30% of global air demand), reducing both demand and supply.

Container Freight Rate : SCFI

: The 2025 economic market will be significantly affected by the Trump administration's tariff policies. Trump turned to the Trade Expansion Act amid IEEPA tariff doubts. U.S. tariff revenue set to hit record high despite Trump-era trade tensions

(Source : Shanghai Shipping Exchange )

Demand & Supply Trend

: Demand surges in Q1 due to front-loading to prepare for risks such as USEC port strike and high tariffs. Global reliability in H1 improved due to the phased introduction of Gemini and expansion of front-loading.

Air Freight Rate: TAC Index

: H1 2025 N.America inbound rates remained volatile, driven by the end of de minimis rule and new tariffs on parcels.
Europe inbound rates remained relatively stable, showing mild fluctuations compared to North America.

(Source : TAC Index)

Demand & Supply Trend

: H1 2025 demand +2.7% YoY, supply +0.2% — demand-led market despite tariffs barriers. Passenger demand growth and 90-day tariff pause boost overall capacity, but China-US supply declines.