Thông tin thị trường [Oct. 2024] Logistics Market Intelligence Quarterly Report

In September, U.S. PMI remained at 47.2, while China rose by 0.7 to 49.8, still in an economic contraction.

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

- South Korea is expected to see stable growth due to strong exports and mild inflation.

- China's September 24 policies aim to stabilize markets, raising expectations for fiscal stimulus. Risks on private consumption growth persist due to real estate stagnation and weakened consumer confidence.

- Vietnam's economic growth persists due to rising demand from key partners and stable FDI.

- Amid recession fears, the Fed's major rate cut is expected to stimulate economic rebound. Growth is expected to slow to some extent due to the weakening labor market. Political uncertainty risks persist following the November election results.

- The ECB's rate-cutting monetary policy is expected to continue, anticipating economic recovery.

Early shipments due to U.S. East Coast port strike risks have led to increased North American port congestion compare to Q2.
The SCFI composite index hit 2,100 in late September and is expected to decline through year-end due to slowing demand.

Average freight forecast for Q4 2024 : USWC $3,689 / USEC $4,851 / N. Europe $2,377 / S. America $6,701.

Both demand and supply forecasts have risen from Jun to Sep, yet the imbalance persists. (Demand 4.8% → 5.2%, Supply 9.8% → 10.4%)
The prolonged Red Sea crisis keeps carriers rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, maintaining tight vessel supply.

[Asia] China's economic slowdown weakens demand, causing oil prices to drop
- Oil prices have dropped to annual lows since early July.
- China's weak demand persists, affecting global oil consumption. China's crude oil imports peaked in 2023 but are declining in 2024.

[Americas] U.S. Inventories to Sales Ratio
- U.S. manufacturing and wholesale inventory/Sales ratios have fallen since Jun 2024; other sectors remain flat
- By sector, a slight rebound for household goods in Jul, while machinery declined after a 16-month rise since Mar 2023

[Europe] Trade Route Supply-Demand Development
- Asia-N. Europe W/B: Slot utilization forecast to decline in Q3-Q4 due to stagnant demand and rising supply in H2

In Sep 2024, the BAI00 rose to 2,219, up by 2.3% WoW and by 7.5% over the past 12 months. The EU and US indices continue to rise WoW but remain down by 2 digits YoY.
By route, in the 40th WK 2024, HK-U.S. rates dropped 1% to $5.55/kg, while HK-EU rates rose 5% to $4.93/kg. HK-U.S. rates have declined for 4 Weeks due to stricter inspections on U.S. e-commerce goods.

HK-US : 4Q 2024 $5.12 ~ $5.75, 1Q 2025 $3.66 ~ $4.77, 2Q $5.21~5.84, 3Q $ 4.99~5.43
HK-EU : 4Q 2024 $4.58 ~ $4.83, 1Q 2025 $3.71 ~ $4.22, 2Q $4.40~4.68, 3Q $ 4.08~4.24

In August 2024, cargo demand increased by 15.4% compared to August 2019, while capacity grew by 17.8%.

[Asia] Severe bottlenecks at Asian airports are driving up freight rates
- Asia's demand spiked 11% YTD in Aug 2024, with China-U.S. spot rates up 30% to $4.53/kg in early Sep 2024
- Supply shortages from Southeast Asia in mid-September and China's Golden Week in October caused severe airport bottlenecks across Asia.

[Americas] Major semiconductor firms are from the U.S. and Korea
- Intel, with a 9% market share, leads as an Integrated Device Manufacturer, managing design, production, and sales for system semiconductors. Qualcomm and Broadcom are leading U.S. companies in mobile communication and wireless technology.
- Samsung Electronics, with a 7.5% market share, leads in memory and competes with TSMC in system semiconductors.

[Europe] Europe's contracting PMI pressures freight rates down
- After staying at 45.8 for 3 months, Europe's PMI fell to 44.8 in Sep 2024. Decreasing orders and weak demand are pushing down air freight rates from Europe
- The Asia-Europe inbound cargo gap averaged 9% in 2019, but rose to 47% in Jun 2024, highlighting worsening regional trade imbalances.