Thông tin thị trường [Sep. 2024] Logistics Market Intelligence Report

China's PMI fell 0.8% to 49.1 due to reduced domestic demand and Western import restrictions.
EU PMI remains stagnant at 45.8 for 3 months, with a notable manufacturing downturn in Germany and France.

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

75.4하락(4.6)

Oil price rose above $80/bbl then turned lower with concerns over easing tensions and economic slowdown of U.S. and China. OPEC+'s decision to halt production cuts in Oct, China's demand slowdown, leading to a downturn.

SCFI comprehensive index falls for two weeks in a row, falls below 3,000 for the first time in three months.
Europe and U.S. routes lead the decline, with Augusts average freight rates down by 9-16% compared to July.

September freight rates expected to decline due to continued increase in supply and weaker demand-pull.
The comprehensive index expected to continue to decline to 2,902p in September, 2,567p in October and 2,027p in November.

Demand to grow 5.2% in 2024, but oversupply will persist with 10.3% increase in supply.
Red Sea disruptions, risk of U.S. East Coast port strikes, etc. will keep supply tight throughout peak season.

[Asia] Floods cripple Bangladesh's trade
- Devastating floods in Bangladesh have submerged roads, homes, and farmland, halting cargo movement on the Dhaka-Chittagong Highway.
- This has sharply reduced cargo volumes at Chittagong port and inland container depots, with a significant drop in available trucks for exports. On 25th Aug, Chittagong port received only 1,647 import containers, about one-third of the usual volume.

[Americas] Cargo shifts to U.S. West Coast amid Canadian rail strike fears
- On 22nd Aug, unions at Canada’s two major railways (CN, CPKC) went on strike, but the Canadian government quickly intervened, leading to a suspension of the strike.
- Concerned about the strike, customers diverted shipments to U.S. West Coast ports, resulting in Seattle and Tacoma ports handling 136,000 TEUs in Jun, a 38.8% increase from the previous month.
- Full normalization of rail services is expected to take about a week, with the possibility of another strike, requiring close monitoring.

[Europe] China-Europe rail route emerges as a Red Sea alternative
- According to China State Railway Group, over 11,400 trains operated in H1 '24, with consistent monthly growth. In Jul, for the third consecutive month, more than 1,700 trains ran between China and Europe, handling 185K TEUs.
- This surge is due to shippers seeking alternative routes amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the recent Red Sea crisis. With services via Russia suspended, Chinese carriers are increasingly using routes through Kazakhstan and other southern nations.

The air market remains stable, with summer travel demand boosting passenger supply.
By route, in week 33 VN-US rate dropped to $6.82/kg, a 17.9% decrease from the previous week and VN-EU rates have dropped for 5 weeks due to summer vacation and Aug holidays in EU.

HK-US : Average rate for August 2024 $5.73, 4Q 2024 $5.78 - $6.34, 1Q '25 $6.27 - $6.40
HK-EU : Average rate for August 2024 $4.42, 4Q 2024 $5.20 - $5.70, 1Q '25 $5.01 - $5.40

July 2024, supply reached 41.4 B kilometers, demand was 20.6 B kilometers, and CLF 49.7%. Supply rose by 4% MoM, demand by 2% MoM, driven by rising demand in summer peak season.

[Asia] Incheon Airport Expands Operation to Vietnam
- The Incheon International Airport Corporation has been selected as a prioritized contractor for the project on consulting services for operation of Vietnam's new Long Thanh International Airport.
- Long Thanh, is expected to reduce the congestion at Tan Son Nhat International Airport in Ho Chi Minh City. The project scheduled for 24 months with an estimated value of around 11 billion KRW (equivalent to 8.06 million USD).

[Europe] Lufthansa Cargo expands 777F fleet to 18 aircraft
- Lufthansa Cargo has added another new Boeing 777 freighter to modernize its fleet and expand its cargo capacity.
- On August 17, the 18th B777F was delivered in Frankfurt. Lufthansa now operates 12 of its own B777Fs on long-haul routes, with an additional 6 operated by AeroLogic.

[Americas] Air cargo resurgence unhindered in July
- Stronger freight demand may be around the corner, 49% of freight brokers foresee a rise in cargo volume over the next three to six months according to survey.
- Cargo rates shipped from Southeast Asia to North America have increased by 116% YoY, reaching $5.78/kg and DHL Express and UPS plan to introduce peak season surcharges.