Xu hướng thương mại điện tử 2025 US Economic Outlook and E-commerce Strategies

Changes in the world economic landscape are expected in 2025 along with inflation upward pressure in the U.S., trade customs union, etc. A report from Goldman Sachs in 4Q 2024 said the economy is estimated to stabilize from the first half of 2025 when Trump takes office. Also, the GDP index of the U.S. is likely to indicate that generally, the U.S. economy would be sound. However, the key to the U.S. economic growth depends on consumer confidence, so it is indispensable to pay attention to consumption-related indices.

As the business environment changes in line with the U.S. spending prediction, e-commerce sellers need to consider flexible inventory, supply chain management, and marketing strategies according to the consumption trend. This article will cover the 2025 U.S. economic outlook and what should e-commerce sellers prepare and check. 2025 U.S. Economic Outlook On 27 November 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced 3Q 2024 GDP (Gross Domestic Product). It was 2.8%, lower than 3% of the previous quarter, 2Q. [1] ^[1] When taking into account firm spending on Black Friday in November 2024, the GDP of 2024 seems to reach approximately 3%. We will review the content of year-end shopping in the later section but we’ll first see how much the U.S. growth rate will be in 2025.

IMF forecasts that 2025 U.S. GDP would stand at 2.2% and the U.S. growth rate would be lower than 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024. Additionally, the IMF estimates that the growth would be slower than Canada and Japan in 2025. The GDP of Japan would increase from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025 and Canada would see the growth of 2.4% in 2025 from 1.3% in 2024. ^[2]

Goldman Sachs said in the report released on 15 November 2024 that the world economy will experience steady growth in 2025. It projects that after the new Trump administration settles in, the U.S. economy would surpass the outlook. Also, it expects that Trump’s tariff policies which will be imposed on China and Europe would cause a slowdown of the countries’ economic growth while Japan and Canada would see outstanding growth as the IMF’s projection. ^[3]

The University of Michigan as well expects that the U.S. GDP to be below 2.8% in 2024, stating a more conservative forecast than the IMF and Goldman Sachs. The university forecasts the U.S. growth rate to be 2.1%, lower than 2.2% of IMF and 2.5% of Goldman Sachs.^[4]

2025 U.S. Consumption Economy Outlook The U.S. consumption economy is forecasted to continue a positive trend as it was in 2024. Recently U.S. consumers had the biggest shopping peak season, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which lasts five days from 28 November to 2 December 2024, so-called “Cyber Week.” During this period, record-high purchases continued. This robust consumption is interpreted as a positive sign for future economic growth, leading to the outlook of strong U.S. consumption growth in 2025. Particularly, as the U.S. economy appears to remain concrete, the outlook that consumer confidence would strengthen and the labor market would stabilize prevails. Against this backdrop, U.S. consumption in 2025 is likely to be sturdy. Sturdy Consumption of U.S. Consumers According to the research on 3 December 2024 from the NRF (National Retail Federation), offline shoppers recorded 197 million during the five days of holiday from the weekend to Cyber Week. The figure couldn’t exceed that of 240 million in the year prior, but it is still the second-highest in history. ^[5]

The NRF presented that the day of the highest traffic among the five days of the Cyber Week was Black Friday. 81.7 million consumers visited brick-and-mortar shops on Black Friday, which is an increase from 76.2 million last year and hit the record high since the pandemic. The online shopping on Black Friday showed a similar number of shoppers of around 87.3 million, a slight decrease from 906 million in 2023. ^[5]

Cyber Monday recorded the second-highest traffic in online shopping, maintaining similar trend of 644 million with 731 million in 2023. Cyber Monday rather than Black Friday, driving bigger shopping with higher discounts During the 2024 Cyber Week, U.S. consumers enjoyed shopping online more than offline. This seems to be the result of thorough preparation for discounts, items, enough inventory, marketing strategies, etc., which matches consumers’ expectations. Adobe Analytics pointed out high discounts which encouraged purchases as the core reason. The strategic preparation induced consumer participation and drove strong revenue growth. ^[6][8]

During the Cyber Week, consumers made decisions to buy high-priced items, such as electronics, home appliances, sports goods, etc., and the real purchases were made online. When taking a close look, the discount rate for electronics was 30.1%, 23.2% for apparel, 21.8% for TVs, and 21.5% for computers. Adobe Analytics analyzed that discounts higher than consumer expectations accelerated e-commerce revenue growth. ^[6]

Adobe Analytics reported that the online sales on 2024 Black Friday hit $10.8 million, which is 10.23% up from the previous year. ^[6]

Mastercard said in the report that the U.S. retail revenue on 29 November 2024 Black Friday was 3.4% higher compared to that of 2023. The report said that Black Friday is still a popular shopping event for U.S. consumers and even shopping period has extended to Cyber Week, the shopping tends to be focused on Black Friday.

Even though the discount promotion already started before the Thanksgiving holiday, consumer responses were modest because they were less interested in pre-sales but preferred shopping on Black Friday. ^[7][8]

The major trend of 2024 Black Friday was the robust growth of online shopping. Revenue of 2023 online shopping soared by 14.6% while offline sales observed a mere 0.7% growth. ^[7] This demonstrates that consumers prefer online shopping, underscoring the need for digital transformation of the retail industry.

During the Black Friday period, categories of jewelry, electronics, and apparel saw high revenue, and particularly online sales of apparel skyrocketed. Mastercard analyzed that this showcases the overall e-commerce market growth. ^[7] The data indicates that companies are required to bolster online platform and digital infrastructure.

The online sales of this season played a crucial role in the entire revenue growth. Particularly, the online spending trend on Cyber Monday drew more attention than Black Friday. Adobe Analytics’ data represented that Cyber Monday recorded $13.3 billion of sales, 7.3% up from last year, and for the five days of Cyber Week, the revenue grew by 8.2% year-over-year, hitting the record of $41.1 billion.

Figuring out the devices—which drove online shopping revenue—consumers prefer would be imperative as it could highly impact further strategic marketing planning. E-commerce Shopping via Mobile Device

Adobe Analytics announced that 57% of Cyber Monday’s online revenue came from mobile devices this season. This figure is a significant increase from 33% in 2019. ^[6] According to NRF’s data, 63% of Cyber Monday online shoppers preferred shopping via mobile devices. This figure is a rise from 55% last year, a record high since NRF carried out a survey on the preferred type of device for online shopping. ^[5]

These statistics reflect mobile shopping is preferred as a familiar method for U.S. consumers. It can be an important insight when establishing e-commerce marketing strategies. The trend of consumers preferring online shopping on mobile devices should be taken into account in mobile optimization and relevant marketing strategy as core factors moving forward. The U.S. Economic Outlook from Consumer Sentiment Index perspective

One of the widely used important indices to analyze U.S. consumers’ economic sentiment and forecast economic prospects is the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. This index plays a vital role in predicting consumer spending which accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. economic activities. It can also be a major reference to predict 2025 U.S. consumer spending.

Michigan consumer sentiment index consists of three things: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, University of Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year, and 5-Year Inflation Expectations. The consumer sentiment index comprehensively reflects consumers’ assessment of today's and future economy and measures overall optimistic and pessimistic views of the economy. The expectation index shows consumers’ expectations of economic prospects. It plays a vital role in forecasting economic volatility, especially consumer spending direction. Inflation expectations reflect consumers’ inflation predictions during the next year or next 5 years. ^[9]

At the beginning of every month, preliminary values are announced and revisions reflecting additional data are released. Let’s take a look at recently released indices.

On December 6, 2024, the University of Michigan announced the preliminary results of a survey of consumers.

The index of consumer sentiment rose from 71.8 points to 74.0 points in December. This figure is an increase by 3.1% MoM and 6.2% YoY. (69.7 points in December 2023)

Currently, it increased to 77.7 points in December, up from 63.9 points in November. This figure is an increase by 21.6% MoM and 6.0% YoY. (73.3 points in December 2023)

The index of Consumer expectations dropped from 76.9 to 71.6 points in December. This figure shows that the index cut by 6.9% MoM and rose by 6.2% YoY. (67.4 points in December 2023)

According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment improved 5 months consecutively, an increase by approximately 3%, and recorded an all-time high in 7 months. However, analysts say that the improvement doesn’t lead to a strong economy necessarily. The rise in purchasing non-consumable goods can be interpreted as consumers’ tendency to purchase early and avoid price rises later. This can be understood as an outcome of making immediate purchase decisions as consumers are concerned with price increases. ^[9]

Such an analysis is in line with shopping pattern during Cyber week. According to analysis by Adobe Analytics, a high discount rate was a main contributing factor to encourage consumer spending. ^[6]

Accordingly, two data show that there is a strong tendency for consumers to value short-term price benefits and utilize the current shopping discount opportunities. The tendency reaffirms that price and discounts play a key role in psychological factors of U.S. consumer spending trends. E-commerce Strategy -
Preemptive Response to Potential U.S. Tariff and Tariff Alliance – Supply Chain Diversification In 2025, e-commerce businesses will have to choose a delicate strategy to respond to potential changes in U.S. tariffs. The tariff proposed by the Trump administration will have a considerable impact on global trade with nations, especially China, Mexico, Canada, and the EU.

These changes have impacts on pricing strategy so discreet analysis and preemptive response are crucial. E-commerce sellers manufacturing or importing goods in the regions have to bear the higher costs and it can lead to rising prices and deterioration in U.S. market competitiveness.

Sellers are recommended to review manufacturers including alternative manufacturing countries that can provide more advantageous trade conditions. Supply chain diversification and production location change can be a critical strategy to offset potential tariff risks.
For example, Vietnam is in a favorable position when it comes to manufacturing electronics, apparel, and shoes, thanks to low labor costs and the US-Vietnam trade agreement. With a large-scale workforce, India is well-positioned to produce textile, apparel, and electronics, and is worth exploring as an alternative producer as it has solidified trade ties with the US.

Under Trump’s new tariff policy, a new tariff alliance such as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will likely come into force. For instance, we can imagine a virtual tariff alliance like the US-Mexico-EU. In this agreement, the U.S. tariff policy is equally applied just like it is in the EU and Japan. In other words, when goods produced in China, Mexico, and Canada are imported to the EU and Japan, they are subject to the same tariff rates applied to imports to the U.S.

Likewise, the rise of new tariff alliances or trade agreements is so realistic that e-commerce companies need to come up with long-term supply chain planning with potential changes considered in advance. Well-prepared companies will be able to maintain competitiveness, secure profitability, and gain a more advantageous presence in the market. E-commerce Strategy – Mobile Shopping Optimization We identified through this shopping peak season that mobile shopping is a transaction method US consumers are used to. ^[5][6][8] Let’s take a look into major points that we can utilize in terms of mobile shopping from e-commerce marketing strategy perspective.

⦁ Mobile-friendly website and application design: Support is essential for the following: design that enables rapid loading on mobile devices and UX optimized, easy search, intuitive UI, and mobile payment options (Apple Pay, Google Pay, etc.).

⦁ Utilization of social media and mobile ads: U.S. consumers are familiar with searching for and purchasing goods via social media so ads on platforms such as Instagram, YouTube, and Facebook along with enhancement of influencer marketing are required. In particular, we can expect a high conversion rate of buying that allows content on mobile platforms connected to shopping functions.

⦁ Personalized shopping experience: When personalizing the mobile shopping experience, you can increase the probability of purchase. To be specific, there is a variety of personalized marketing: recommending products by analyzing previous purchase history, sending an email about ads of the products consumer is interested in, offering discounts for the product, and so on.

⦁ Streamlined mobile payment: When the payment process is complicated or gets slightly longer, consumers tend to give up. Therefore, it is important to adopt a payment system that allows them to complete purchases with only a few clicks. Utilizing “Buy Now” button and automatically saved payment information can be an alternative.

⦁ Maintain a safe transaction setting: Even if a streamlined mobile payment is preferred, security should never be compromised. The importance of safe transaction settings should be highlighted and informing consumers of the necessary process required for security such as 2-step authentication is crucial.

⦁ Real-time customer support: Real-time customer support should also be improved to minimize consumer complaints and allow customers to make quicker purchase decisions. You need to pay attention when it comes to service provision and stable operation of mobile services, such as live chat service that can be easily accessible in a mobile setting.

The benefit of US consumers accustomed to mobile shopping experiences goes beyond convenience and can be viewed as an opportunity to enhance connection with brands. With this opportunity, you get to win customer loyalty and focus on optimizing the mobile shopping experience. Response to E-commerce Consumer Trend In 2025, optimizing mobile shopping experience will be a priority for e-commerce companies but there are additional consumer trends you need to take into account.

⦁ Respond to new demographics: Gen Z and Alpha are becoming key purchasing demographics. This group is knowledgeable about digital technology and highly interested in new digital experiences such as Augmented Reality (AR) shopping. To maintain relevancy with the digital native generations, sellers will also need to consider investing in building new digital shopping settings such as AR technology.

⦁ Utilize data analysis: By analyzing consumer data, you can not only improve existing products but also launch new products that meet market demand. Also, you can provide personalized shopping experiences that resonate with consumer needs by focusing on specific demographic groups.
To that end, for example, you can improve targeting strategies by analyzing data such as consumer shopping duration, purchase frequency, and average purchase amount. With the strategies, you can run a limited promotion during a certain time when there is a lot of mobile traffic. By analyzing product reviews and product-related content mentioned on social media, you can figure out consumer preferences and areas of improvement for the product, which can be utilized for product renewal or new product release.

⦁ Encourage value consumption: As we saw at Cyber Week 2024, high discounts led to bold purchase decisions for high-end products, indicating that low prices and high discounts still drive consumers' purchasing decisions. By applying this, cost-effective bundles, loyalty rewards, and subscription services that provide price advantages to subscribers can be good options. Moreover, an alternative would be to enter the market to meet demands for luxury goods budget-sensitive so that high-end items can be launched for consumers to purchase without excessive spending.

In 2025, the U.S. economy is expected to show stable growth, with consumer sentiment remaining strong despite several factors such as the launch of a new government and geopolitical variables. The U.S. e-commerce market will face a dynamic environment where change and opportunity coexist, providing e-commerce companies with a new opportunity to take a leap forward. We hope that you will prepare for the future by referring to the strategies suggested above and be successful in the e-commerce market through steady growth. # References [1] Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary), US Bureau of Economic Analysis
https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2024-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits
[2] Policy Pivot, Rising Threats, IMF
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024
[3] The global economy is forecast to grow solidly in 2025 despite trade uncertainty, Goldman Sachs
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-global-economy-is-forecast-to-grow-solidly-in-2025
[4] The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2025–2026, University of Michigan
https://lsa.umich.edu/content/dam/econ-assets/Econdocs/RSQE%20PDFs/UM_RSQE_US_Forecast_Nov24.pdf
[5] 197 Million Consumers Shop Over Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend, National Retail Federation
https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/197-million-consumers-shop-over-thanksgiving-holiday-weekend
[6] Cyber Monday Hits Record $13.3 Billion in Online Spending with Majority of Sales Driven by Mobile,Adobe Analytics Adobe
https://news.adobe.com/news/2024/12/120324-adi-cyber-monday-recap
[7] Mastercard SpendingPulse: U.S. Black Friday retail sales up +3.4% vs. last year, Mastercard SpendingPulse
https://newsroom.mastercard.com/news/press/2024/november/mastercard-spendingpulse-us-black-friday-retail-sales-up-3-4-vs-last-year/
[8] Holiday season off to ‘healthy start’ with strong Black Friday-Cyber Monday, Market Insider
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/holiday-season-off-to-healthy-start-with-strong-black-friday-cyber-monday-1034098675
[9] surveys of consumers, University of Michigan
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

▶ This content is protected by the Copyright Act, and the copyright is held by the contributor.
▶ This content is prohibited from secondary processing and commercial use without prior consent.