Thông tin thị trường [Jul. 2024] Logistics Market Intelligence Quarterly Report

U.S. June PMI stands at 48.5, marking a three-month decline, indicating an ongoing inflation ease.

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

SCFI Composite Index surpasses 3K for first time since the pandemic, averaging 2,628 points in 2Q 2024, up 30% QoQ. SCFI Composite Index nears 4K as Red Sea crisis shows no signs of resolution.

The composite index is expected to rise to an average of about 3,600 points in Jul 2024 and then drop.
Average freight forecast for 3Q 2024 : USWC $6,204 / USEC $8,023 / N. Europe $4,795 / S. America $8,177.

Demand forecast for 2024 has risen from 3.8%(Jan.) to 4.8%(July), but supply has risen by a larger margin, from 8.0% to 9.8%.
The demand-supply gap is expected to gradually improve from 7.5%p (2023) → 5.0%p (2024) → 2.3%p (2025).

[Asia] Growing influence of Chinese ports and Asian ports making strides
- By region of top 10 ports: China 6, Asia 2 and others 2 and the proportion of 6 ports in China grew from 4% to 22%.
- Singapore and Busan ranked 3rd and 4th after Shanghai and Ningbo in terms of port connectivity index, proving their competitiveness as global ports in Asia.

[Americas] Peak season starts earlier than usual
- Stable retail sales trends in North America and possible interest rate cut, may keep demand stable.
- However, if Trump wins in the US presidential election in Nov, there may be a decline in import demand due to the policy of strengthening import tariffs.

[Europe] Port congestion at key shipping and transshipment ports
- Asia-Europe routes are experiencing severe port congestion at key shipping and transshipment ports due to diversions through the Cape of Good Hope and surging demand since April.
- Barcelona is experiencing congestion due to the trend toward larger vessels calling at the port and a surge in East MED t/s cargoes.

U.S.-bound rates from Vietnam are up 15% to $7.85/kg, all other rates are down.
India-EU rates fell for the third week, while Vietnam-EU rates rose for the fourth week to $5.95/kg, the highest mark in 2024.

HK-US : 3Q 2024 $6.24 - $7.02, 4Q $6.08 - $6.63, 1Q 2025 $6.98 - $7.12
HK-EU : 3Q 2024 $4.58 - $5.77, 4Q $5.68 - $5.78, 1Q 2025 $5.39 - $5.51

The overall air market is expected to grow in 2024, with Asia-Pacific routes recovering to pre-pandemic levels.
As of May 2024, demand increased by 7.9% and supply by 12.1% compared to May 2019.

[Asia] Growth in Passenger Capacity at Major Asian Airports
- From May to June 2024, international passenger Capa from Northeast Asia grew by double digits YoY, with a 24% increase within Northeast Asia and a 23% increase to North America.
- Among Asian hub airports, SHA Airport in China recorded the highest growth, increasing by 59% (about 16,000 tons) YoY.

[Americas] Increasing Capacity for Summer demand
- As of June 2024, American Airlines added the most flights, starting several long-haul routes like Chicago-Venice and New York-Tokyo to meet summer passenger demand.
- Delta Air Lines will increase its Cincinnati-Paris route to daily service for the 2024 summer season, doubling its flight frequency in June compared to May.

[Europe] Impact on EU lanes flights due to the Olympics
- Air France is expanding its long-haul capacity by 9% for the Paris Olympics, focusing on 85 routes in 74 countries, especially to North America.
- Both Charles de Gaulle and Orly airports will handle Olympics and Paralympics’ cargo, with a new 9,800 m² routing system capable of processing 3,600 items per hour for faster handling.