Inteligencia De Mercado [Square Newsletter] 2023 No.4

Economy

Due to the aftermath of inflation and slow recovery of global supply chain centering on major countries, global economic downturn has been continuing, giving rise to widespread concerns about global recession in 2023.

Sea Freight

The container ocean freight rate has plummeted from 2H 2022 since reaching its peak in Jan. 2022, and is expected to gradually recover from 2H 2023 thanks to the global economic recovery and China’s reopening.

Air Freight

The air freight rate has continuously decreased from 1H 2022 only to rebound slightly recently. As summer approaches, however, the rate is expected to further decrease due to the increased belly supply and continuous supply increase of shipping companies.

The economic slowdown continues in 23, but it is expected to improve in the second half. Major countries' economic growth rates are expected to be 2.9% in 23 and 3.1% in 24 due to China's reopening and the U.S. and Europe's soft landing. The manufacturing PMI has been shrinking for five months in the U.S. and nine months in Europe, but China is expanding in the first quarter due to the impact of reopening. International oil prices fall 29.2% after hitting 114.67 USD in May '22.

The SCFI composite index continues to decline, and there will be no significant change in the second half of '23. The route from Hong Kong to the United States began to rebound in March on all sections, and fares from Hong Kong to Europe have continued to decline. Due to the global economic downturn, aviation oil has fallen 33% from its high point in June ‘22, but has risen 45% from February ‘19.