Inteligencia De Mercado [May 2024] Logistics Market Intelligence Report

US, EU and China OECD leading index exceeds 100 and recovers to expansion in Mar.
Strong growth in US and China raises global economic growth by 2.9% to 3.1% in 2024.

※ An economic cycle is largely divided into four stages. Expansion phase : If it is in an upward trend with more than 100 / Downward phase : If it is in a downward trend with more than 100 / Contraction phase : if it is in a downward trend with less than 100 / Recovery phase : if it is in an upward trend with less than 100
※ Europe : France, Germany, Italy, UK

EU’s PMI declined to 45.6, while US slows PMI from 51.5 in March to 50.5 on lower growth as orders fall. China shows expansion due to resumption of manufacturing industry.

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

84.4상승(4.0)

In Apr, WTI hit an yearly high of $87.6 due to the Iran-Israel conflict, but turned downward due to the reduced possibility of escalation of war.
A correction is expected in the short term due to the increase in US crude oil inventories and the possibility of a delay in the Fed interest rate cut, but uncertainty remains due to the situation in the Middle East.

The April SCFI composite index showed a sharp increase in the last week due to the volume rush before China's Labor Day, demand for shipments before GRI in May, and conflicts in the Middle East.
USEC & USWC freight rates rebounded in the final week of April, surging 14.5% and 13.4% WoW, respectively, after 10 consecutive weeks of declines beginning in Feb.

Freight rates are expected to rebound in May due to solid demand growth in U.S. and the GRI effect on key routes.
The SCFI composite index from May to Jul 2024 is expected to range from 1,561 to 1,870 points.

A record-high 2.7 M TEU of new ships are scheduled to be delivered in 2024, but ships are being absorbed due to the Red Sea incident. Demand growth at 4.1%, 0.2%p higher than previous month’s forecast.
Supply-demand imbalance will remain due to oversupply, but gap is narrowing year on year.

[Asia] Malaysia's largest port to double capacity
- Malaysia's largest port, Port Klang, plans to double its capacity from its annual capacity from 14 M TEU to 27 M TEU, it is aiming to chase neighboring hub Singapore as the shift in global supply chains adds to the competition in Southeast Asia's logistics sector.

[Americas] Cargo theft is expected to increase over Memorial Day
- Cargo theft incidents have been on the rise during the Memorial Day(last Monday in May) holiday over the past five years.
- Areas mainly targeted are those adjacent to large ports such as California, Texas, and Florida, and it is known that food and beverages, household goods, and electronics have been the main targets of theft. For 5 years, 125 cases worth $17 M have been reported, with warehouses, distribution centers or parking lots being the most frequently chosen locations.

[Europe] Rotterdam and Antwerp ports fall in global rankings
- According to Alphaliner's 2023 Top 30 Port List, Rotterdam fell two places to 13th, and Antwerp in Belgium also fell two places to 15th.
- This was mainly due to the global economic downturn in 2023, and in particular, a sharp decline in import volume from Russia was one of the causes.

Wk18, VN-US $6.05/kg up 9% WoW, CN-US $5.32/kg up 3% WoW.
Wk18, IN-EU $4.00/kg up 7% WoW, Up by increased volume after the holidays.

HK-US: 2024 2Q $5.6-4.7, 3Q $4.3-4.5, 4Q $3.8-4.2
HK-EU: 2024 2Q $4.0-4.2, 3Q $3.8-3.9, 4Q $3.7-3.8

Red Sea disruption drives demand of Africa & Middle East airlines for European routes and boosted E-commerce volume also drives demand.
Demand increased 11.6% year-on-year and 16.5% compared to May 2019. Supply increased 10.5% year-on-year and 8.6% compared to May 2019.

[Asia] Turkish Airlines in talks with Airbus, Boeing to buy 235 planes
- This follows their 10-year fleet plan to add nearly 600 planes, with a recent deal with Airbus for 355 firm and optional orders.

[Europe] Swedish E-commerce Projected Revenue of 12.1 Billion Krone
- Sweden's e-commerce sales record double-digit growth in January, February 2024.
- E-commerce is also affected by inflation and high interest rates, but expectations of lower interest rates provide a positive outlook for the e-commerce market.

[Americas] China’s e-commerce exports, unreliable Red Sea shipping boost air cargo
- Demand and rates rise due to China’s e-commerce volume growth and Red Sea conditions
- E-commerce demand growth exceeds air capacity growth. Due to the upward momentum of the market, there is possibility of capacity shortage in 4Q