Inteligencia De Mercado [Jan. 2025] Logistics Market Intelligence Quarterly Report

China's PMI hit 50.3 in November, signaling expansion, but trade tensions may grow.

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

- Delayed recovery in global demand for semiconductors slows exports, weakening growth.

- Trade tensions and tariff risks with the U.S. are expected to lower growth. Domestic slowdown and real estate risks persist.

- Strong exports and rising FDI sustain economic growth

- Steady growth expected with recovering consumption and rising investment. Trump 2.0 tariffs and immigration policies risk slowing growth and raising inflation.

- ECB’s continued rate cuts are expected to drive a mild 1% recovery in 2025. Manufacturing slowdown and trade friction risks persist.

The SCFI has been on the decline since September, but rose again to the 2,300 level in December. In January, 2025, the second ILA strike, Trump's 2.0, and the Lunar New Year will affect freight rates until the 1st quarter.

The composite index in 4Q decreased due to slowing demand, Expected to rise in 1Q due to tariff and strike concerns. Average freight rate forecast for 1Q, USWC $3,734 / USEC $4,788 / North Europe $2,664 / South America $5,255.

In 2025, it is be expected to increase supply by 5.4%, demand by 2.8% compared to last year. Amid risks of a decrease in demand due to the US tariff policy, a concern about oversupply looms.

[Asia]
- In Asia, congestion at Shanghai port increased due to Typhoon Kongray in 4Q, and early shipment demand.

[Americas]
- The U.S. shows solid growth in 2024, but tariff policies and labor market risks remain. In Jan 2025 imports expected at 2.2M TEU due to port strikes and tariffs

[Europe]
- In Europe, delays occurred due to the modernization at Hamburg Port and a decrease in water levels on the Rhine River.

Q4 2024 rates remain high, sustaining an upward trend year-over-year. Peak season demand drives Q4 rate increases despite added capacity and early planning.
Q4 VN-U.S. rates remained high due to Chinese e-commerce but declined 5.7% QoQ, signaling slower growth. Q4 HKG-SHA export rates rose in double digits, highlighting peak seasonality and 2025 market optimism.

HKG-US : 1Q '25 $5.29 ~ $6.38, Q2 $5.62 ~ $5.86, Q3 $5.71~5.83, Q4 $6.05~7.44
HKG-EU : 1Q '25 $5.17 ~ $5.65, Q2 $5.13 ~ $5.31, Q3 $5.26~5.37, Q4 $5.32~6.06

IATA forecasts 6% growth in global air cargo in 2025. In November 2024, global air cargo demand & supply grew by 9.5% and 6.5% YOY, respectively.

[Asia] Single FSC in Korea
- In Dec 2024, Korean Air acquired 63.88% stake of Asiana Airlines, becoming its largest shareholder. Korean Air integrates with Asiana, plans brand merger by end of 2026.

[Americas] Potential shift from sea to air freight due to U.S. port strikes
- 1st East Coast port strike drives a 12% MoM increase in EU-U.S. air demand. China-U.S. spot rates surged by19.6% within a week of the strike. A second East Coast port strike is likely in January 2025, with delays pushing sea-to-air freight shifts, further intensified by Asia's long Lunar New Year holidays.

[Europe] Slow recovery in China routes impacts A.P belly capacity
- Major European airlines saw a 40%+ decline on China routes vs. 2019 (Lufthansa : -46%, Air France: -57%, KLM: -55%, British Airways: -41%). 84% load factor on Asia-Europe routes in 2024, driven by demand.