Inteligencia De Mercado [Aug. 2024] Logistics Market Intelligence Report

The U.S. continues to expand, but early-year inflation rises dampen its outlook.
South Korea's 7-month expansion is boosted by semiconductor exports and easing inflation.

※ An economic cycle is largely divided into four stages. Expansion phase : If it is in an upward trend with more than 100 / Downward phase : If it is in a downward trend with more than 100 / Contraction phase : if it is in a downward trend with less than 100 / Recovery phase : if it is in an upward trend with less than 100
※ Europe : France, Germany, Italy, UK

The U.S. July new orders index down by 3.85% MoM and PMI drops by 3.9% MoM to 49.6, signaling contraction.
Jun 2024, China's PMI remains at 49.5 for 3 consecutive months showing ongoing manufacturing contraction.

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

80.9상승(2.1)

After rising in early Jul due to hurricanes and the weak dollar, it fell due to concerns about slowing Chinese demand.
It’s expected to show volatility depending on the Chinese economy and the status of Fed rate cuts.

SCFI turned to a downward trend for the first time in 14 weeks just before entering the 4,000 level.
The rate level in Europe remained high due to stable demand and the risk of strikes at German ports.

Downward pressure on freight rates from July is expected to continue in August due to increased vessel injection.
The comprehensive index is expected to gradually decline in 2H from 3,206p in August to 2,913p in October.

The 2024 supply outlook marked a record high of 10.2%, the imbalance between supply-demand widened to 5.5%.
Securing capacity remains tight due to Red Sea crisis and peak season effects despite easing supply crunch.

[Asia] Singapore Port Congestion Eases
- According to figures from Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority (MPA), the port throughput handled by Singapore in the first half of 2024 increased by 6.4% YoY. However, the number of vessel arrivals in June was 241M tons, down 10% from the previous month, and the lowest since last Feb., easing traffic congestion at sea.
- In addition, the average waiting time at ports is being reduced by reactivating some anchorages and yard spaces.

[Americas] Construction of new reservoir to solve water shortage in Panama Canal
- ACP (Panama Canal Authority) recently announced that it will expand the no. of vessels passing through the canal from 34 (22nd July) to 35 (5th August) as the water level rises due to the rainy season effect on Gatun Lake. Experts point out that now is the right time to start construction of a new reservoir at the Panama Canal when the water level is high.
- Under legislation passed in 2006, the Panama Canal banned the construction of additional reservoirs outside the basin for expansion purposes, but this ruling made it possible to construct new reservoirs.

[Europe] Early peak season boosts 1H volumes at Rotterdam
- The increase in container traffic volume at Rotterdam in 1Q continued in 2Q, and cargo throughput in 1H was 6.8M TEUs, an increase of 2.2% YoY.
- This increase in cargo volume is due to an increase in demand for raw materials and consumer goods, as well as an frontloading movement due to the prolonged Red Sea crisis.

In week 31, VN-US rates reached $8.42/kg, a 10% increase WoW and the highest rate of the year.
Meanwhile, week 31 freight rates to Europe rose to $6.10/kg from Vietnam and $3.66/kg from India.

HK-US : 4Q 2024 $6.12 - $6.67, 1Q 2025 $6.99 - $7.14, 2Q $6.53 - $6.92
HK-EU : 4Q 2024 $5.88 - $5.96, 1Q ‘2025 $5.51 - $5.84, 2Q $5.35 - $5.63

2024 air cargo volume expected 5% increase due to cyclical expansion, e-com boom, and Red Sea crisis.
June 2024 demand increased by 12.3% and supply by 11.9% compared to the same period in 2019.

[Asia] Etihad Cargo and SF Airlines connect their mega hubs and expand network
- Etihad Cargo has expanded its partnership with SF Airlines, increasing flights between Abu Dhabi and Ezhou (Wuhan) to five weekly, with additional dedicated freighters from both airlines.
- A new weekly cargo service between Shenzhen and Abu Dhabi adds over 200 tons of capacity, increasing the partnership's total weekly capacity to 630 tons.

[Europe] Lufthansa considers increasing stake in ITA to 90 percent
- Lufthansa is considering increasing its stake in Italian airline ITA Airways to 90% from the beginning of next year. Lufthansa reached an agreement with ITA and the Italian government to invest €325 Min Alitalia's financially troubled successor.
- Lufthansa had already indicated that it wanted to acquire full control of ITA 'at a later date'.

[Americas] IT outage hits global supply chain, with air freight taking days or weeks to recover
- The Microsoft service outage on July 19 disrupted global supply chains, and air cargo recovery is expected to take several days.
- UPS experienced various disruptions within its network but resumed normal operations in the afternoon.