Global News FreightWaves 2025’s peak retail season the best
for trucking in years

John Paul Hampstead, Saturday, January 03, 2026
Original Article: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/2025s-peak-retail-season-the-best-for-trucking-in-years
Articles Reproduced by Permission of FreightWaves

(Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

Supply and demand have returned to equilibrium, for now

Since 2022, loose trucking capacity, rock-bottom truckload rates, and tighter credit have been gradually squeezing carriers out of the market. New entrants who purchased tractors and trailing equipment at peak prices during COVID were at a special disadvantage, but few incumbents would have predicted the length of the current market downturn.

In 2025, the trucking market started behaving a little differently. Tender rejections started the year higher than years previous and stayed there; even more notably, the regular rhythm of seasonal volume surges associated with produce season, summer holidays, and back-to-school seemed to produce higher-amplitude movements.

(The SONAR Tender Rejection Index (STRI) measures the percentage of truckload shipments electronically tendered by shippers and rejected by their carriers. This data series supersedes the older Outbound Tender Rejection Index. Chart: SONAR)

Then came Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and the Christmas shopping season, accompanied by a series of winter storms that pummeled the Midwest and Northeast with snowfall and frigid temperatures.

Tender rejections and truckload spot rates broke past levels set in previous years, underscoring the sensitivity of the truckload market after several years of tightening capacity. Tender rejections topped out at 13.24%, well above the 7-8% threshold that usually marks the beginning of an upturn in spot rates. Spot rates mounted an even more impressive peak season climb, moving from a seasonal low of $2.32 per mile on November 15 to $2.76 per mile by December 28, a climb of 18.9%.

While the tightness around the holidays was a boon for small fleets and owner operators who live in the spot market, it was more complicated for freight brokers for whom spot rates represent costs.

(The National Truckload Index is a national average truckload spot rate inclusive of fuel and denominated in USD per mile. Chart: SONAR)

FreightWaves spoke to David Spencer, Vice President of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics, about how freight brokers handled the seasonal disruptions. Spencer said that Arrive had been waiting for this moment all year.

“Our peak-season planning process began with a review of prior-year trends to better understand the timing of historical rate increases and capacity constraints,” Spencer said. “Given our large book of contract business, award management and proactive customer communication were key areas of focus. Our primary goal was to maintain optimal service levels throughout the season, operating under the assumption that any disruption would be temporary and not worth the risk of losing business due to service failures.”

One of the proactive changes that Arrive made was adjusting their spot API pricing tools that return instant quotes to their customers so that Arrive wasn’t just winning the freight, but was winning the load at a price where it could be moved successfully.

“Leading into peak season, tender rejections were already elevated compared to prior years,” Spencer said. “Coupled with disruptions in October, likely driven by changes in driver behavior related to regulatory enforcement, we anticipated a heightened seasonal response. To some extent, widespread winter weather in the days and weeks following Thanksgiving accelerated this disruption earlier than expected and sustained it through year-end. Historically, there is a lull in early to mid-December before volumes and rates begin to rise sharply; this year, that lull did not materialize, allowing tender rejections and spot rates to reach multi-year highs.”

While capacity has been bleeding out of the trucking market at a fairly steady, gradual rate, what’s much less clear is the demand situation. A protectionist trade policy consisting mostly of a tariff regime unprecedented in both its high rates and rapid enactment pulled imports forward, then choked them off. Massive investment deals announced by shippers in conjunction with the White House, while impressive, will take years in some cases to bear fruit.

Meanwhile, economists of all stripes have been waiting for the American consumer to buckle under the pressure of years of high inflation, but that hasn’t happened—consumer spending was responsible for more than half of the 4.3% y/y GDP growth the economy experienced in the third quarter of 2025.

So the demand situation is still murky. Spencer explained how that complicates Arrive’s forecasts for 2026.

“Looking ahead, mid-May represents the next significant stress test, with Roadcheck Week coinciding with the week leading into Memorial Day,” Spencer said. “While it is difficult to be overly optimistic about freight volumes ahead of that period, any meaningful improvement in housing activity could introduce additional strain.”

While the trucking market appears to be primed for an elevated rate environment, it’s unclear what the external catalyst that shifts the market into overdrive will be.

“The risk of a large, sustained market disruption remains relatively low and would still require a meaningful demand catalyst,” Spencer said. “However, increased sensitivity during seasonal upswings creates more opportunities for spot rates to exceed contract rates, potentially triggering routing guide resets. In short, while a prolonged disruption in 2026 remains unlikely, the probability has increased following the exceptionally strong Q4 peak retail season in 2025.”