Market Intelligence [July 2023] Quarterly Logistics Market Review and Outlook

Registration dateJUL 11, 2023

2Q Review

- 2023 Economic y/y growth (2.1%) slowdown due to tightening, but up 0.4% from Jan projection.
- The U.S. rate (5.25%) froze for first time after 10 rate hikes to cope with inflation (US April CPI 4.0%).
- PMI continues to contract as the post-pandemic service-oriented economy recovers.

2H Forecast

- 2024 world GDP to increase by 2.4% as cooling of inflation and restoration of consumer confidence.
- Rising debt and fiscal fragility in EMs/developing economies due to continued rate hikes could be a potential risk.
- The Fed gave a projected end-of-'23 rate of 5.6%, with two more rate hikes in the 2nd half.

Manufacturing PMI (June)

: 46.0하락(0.9)

: 43.4하락(1.4)

: 49.0상승(0.2)

(Source : Investing.com)

Manufacturing continues to contract as services-driven economy recovers.

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

International Oil Price (WTI) (June)

: 70.64상승(2.54)
Oil price down -38.4% from peak (114.67), US-Iran nuclear deal pushes through, neutralizing Saudi Arabia production cuts

(Source : Investing.com)

2Q Review

- Shanghai Containerized Freight Index(SCFI) averaged 976 in H1'23, down -58% from H2'22.
- Interest rate hikes continue above US Fed target (2%) despite slowing inflation.
- Amid weak container volumes in H1, orderbook to fleet ratio remained at 28%, dominating the market imbalance.

2H Forecast

- Expect a moderate recovery in container volumes from 2H'23 onwards.
- Carriers will continue to control supply and stabilize the supply chain following the settlement of the US West Coast labor dispute.
- Freight rate growth will be limited due to large supply growth exceeding demand growth.

Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast

: SCFI comprehensive index is expected to be 980~1,030 in the 3Q of ‘23 and 1,005~1,010 in the 4Q of '23.
Freight forecast 2nd half of '23 : USWC $1,650 / USEC $2,850 / North Europe $860

(Source : SamsungSDS Brightics)

Regional Trends

: [Asia]
Along with the nearshoring trend of shifting plants from China to Mexico.
China’s total investment in Mexico last year approached $500 million, up from $300 million in 2020 and $200 million in 2019.

: [Americas]
ILWU and PMA reached a tentative agreement on a new six-year contract covering all 29 ports along the US West Coast.
Both parties said in a joint statement, they will turn out full attention back to the operation of the West Coast ports.

: [Europe]
A new FTA between the UK and Australia has come into action from 1 June, removing ‘most’ tariffs on trade between two nations One major aim is to “increase the resilience” of UK’s supply chains by diversifying trade.

2Q Review

- Airfreight rates rebounded modestly in the middle of the 1H in some segments, but remained broadly depressed.
- On the capacity side, passenger airplane belly capacity continues to expand as travel demand recovers, while service-oriented. Demand continues to slow as manufacturing weakens amid economic recovery.

2H Forecast

- The outlook for commodity demand remains subdued, with companies increasingly delaying replenishment of inventories.
- Market is expected to weaken, but capacity is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels due to continued expansion of belly capacity as the passenger industry normalizes. This capacity-demand imbalance is expected to weaken freight rates.

Samsung SDS TAC Forecasting

: HKG-US: 3Q'23 $3.8 to $3.9, 4Q'23 $4.0 to $4.4,
HKG-EUR: $3.6 to $3.8 in 3Q'23, $3.0 to $3.6 in 4Q'23.

(Source : SamsungSDS Brightics)

Regional Trends

: [Asia]
Maersk Air Cargo introduces new B767Fs and expands capacity on Asia-US/Europe routes.
Chicago-Hangzhou will increase from 3/W to 6/W, Greenville-Spartanburg-Incheon-Shenyang will increase from 2/W to 3/W, and Billund-Hangzhou will increase from 3/W to 5/W.

: [Americas]
Lufthansa Cargo is offering six freighter connections with Boeing 777F aircraft to and from Mexico City's second major airport, Felipe Ángeles (NLU), in the 2023 summer flight schedule.

: [Europe]
Airbus’s new level brings the A350F closer to its future rival, the Boeing 777-8F.
The company also revealed that the freighter jet will have a 175-inch (4.44 m) wide cargo door, larger than the 777F.

(Source : https://www.timeanddate.com/ )

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Market Intelligence [July 2023] Quarterly Logistics Market Review and Outlook

2Q Review

2H Forecast

Manufacturing PMI (June)

International Oil Price (WTI) (June)

2Q Review

2H Forecast

Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast

Regional Trends

2Q Review

2H Forecast

Samsung SDS TAC Forecasting

Regional Trends

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